ill., maps; "Final report"--Cover; "January 1992."
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Located in southern Oregon, Crater Lake National Park has long been one of the most popular visitor attractions in the state. Due to a combination of heavy snow fall and limited services, most people visit Crater Lake between May and September. This appears to be changing with the growing popularity of cross country skiing. The National Park Service is responding to this increasing demand for winter use. Over the past five years, the National Park Service has developed planning documents proposing extensive improvements in the Rim Village area which would provide year-round visitor services. Figure 1 CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK Selected cities within 3 and 5 hours driving time The University of Oregon Community Planning Workshop (CPW) was contracted by the National Park Service to evaluate the market for winter operations at the Park. Specifically, CPW's charge was to (1) describe the general demand for winter recreation in the Pacific Northwest and southern Oregon, and (2) determine current and anticipated demand for winter services and activities at Crater Lake. To evaluate the market potential for winter operations at the Park, CPW evaluated: (1) current facilities and activities offered at the Park; (2) historic visitation at the Park and at comparable winter recreation areas; and (3) historic revenues and expenses associated with winter operations at the Park. CPW also sent a survey to about 8,500 individuals to identify (1) their current winter recreation patterns, (2) previous visitation patterns to Crater Lake, (3) preferred activities and services at the Park during the winter months, and (2) the likelihood of future visits to Crater Lake during the winter months. EXISTING CONDITIONS AT THE PARK The National Park Service currently operates two buildings for the use of the general public within Crater Lake National Park: (1) the small Rim Visitor Center, which is open only during the summer and (2) the Steel Center, which contains a larger, more complete visitors' center. The Steel Center is located in the Munson Valley and is open year-round. At present, the park Service has 48 permanent and about 75 seasonal employees. Other visitor service facilities within park boundaries are operated by Crater Lake Lodge Inc. of Oregon under a concession contract with the National Park Service. Current facilities operated by the concessioner include a day-use building that serves as a cafeteria, restaurant, snack bar, ski rental, boat tours, gift store and grocery located on the rim of Crater Lake; and 40 guest lodging units, camper store and 198 campsites located at Mazama. Crater Lake Lodge is presently closed and under rehabilitation. When completed in August 1994, the lodge will contain 71 guest rooms. A camper service building at Mazama offers a gasoline service station, public showers and laundry, grocery and camper supplies, and limited food service. At present, Crater Lake Lodge Inc. employs 11 people in the winter and 110 in the summer. Since 1902, when annual visitation counts to the park were first recorded, annual visits to the park have risen steadily, first exceeding 500,000 in 1962. Visitation peaked in 1977, when about 617,000 people visited the park. Since the peak years of the late 1970s, annual visitation has declined. Between the years 1968 and 1978, an average of 555,000 visitors came to Crater Lake. From 1979 to 1990, the average was 469,000. This total rebounded to 517,000 in 199L It is notable, however, that between 1985 and 1990, summer visitation increased by an average of 0.5 percent annually while winter use increased by 3.6 percent each year. HISTORIC CRATER LAKE VISITATION COUNTS 1980-1991 Year 1 Total Visitors j Summer Visitors' Winter Visitors? 1980 484,256 367,899 116,357 1981 536,719 405,707 131,012 1982 484,283 372,767 111,516 1983 429,586 332,307 92,279 1984 499,945 339,570 160,375 1985 427,927 336,655 91,272 1986 427,716 329,483 98,233 1987 492,581 362,693 129,888 1988 468,994 347,730 121,264 1989 454,737 347,384 107,353 1990 454,253 345,097 109,156 5 Year AAGR 1.2% .5% 3.6% 10 Year AAGR -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% 1 Source: National Park Service. Note: 1991 total visits to Crater Lake National Park were 516,948, an increase of about 62,000 over 1990. POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WINTER OPERATIONS AT THE PARK Planning for increased use of Crater Lake National Park during the winter season requires emphasizing the unique features of the Park, The winter resources of Crater Lake most likely to attract additional winter visits are snow-related activities such as cross-country skiing, snow play and enjoying the physical beauty of the Lake and surrounding park in the winter. The remote, peaceful and relaxed atmosphere of a snow country resort are also key attractions to a number of Activities That Would Attract Winter Visitors potential visitors. Residents of the Pacific states are active outdoor recreation participants. The activities that are most likely to attract them to places like Crater Lake during the months of November through May include: cross-country skiing, snow play, outdoor photography, recreational vehicle camping, sightseeing/exploring, camping (vacation/overnight), and backpacking/wilderness camping. PACIFIC STATES WINTER RECREATION VISITATION POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED OUTDOOR RECREATION ACTIVITIES J Outdoor Activity Winter Potential Washington j Occasions j Oregon Occasions California Occasions Total Occasions jj 1. Cross-Country Ski High 922,000 557,000 932,000 2,411,000 2. Snowplay Moderate 1,936,000 1,058,000 1,626,000 4,620,000 3. Sightsee/explore Moderate 23,042,000 18,645,000 32,529,000 74,216,000 4. Photography Moderate 13,825,000 9,100,000 24,397,000 47,322,000 5. RV Camping Moderate 6,913,000 4,954,000 12,198,000 24,065,000 6. Wilderness Camp Low 5,023,000 2,282,000 3,172,000 10,477,000 7. Camp/vacation Low 18,065,000 12,273,000 18,704,000 49,042,000 TOTAL 69,726,000 48,869,000 93,558,000 212,153,000 1 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop.. Note: State participation rates from Oregon Outdoor Recreation Plan 1988 (Cross Country =.20 per capita; Snowplay= .38 per capita; Sightsee/explore = 6.7 per capita; Outdoor Photography = 3.26 per capita; RV Camping = 1.78 per capita). Similar, although usually lower, participation rates were applied to the populations of Washington and California. Outdoor recreation activities would be important in survey respondents' decisions to visit the Park between the months of October and May. Figure 2 shows the mean of responses with 5 being very important and 1 being unimportant. Activities are ranked by order of importance. Respondents indicated that groomed cross-country trails, backcountry skiing, and hut-to-hut skiing are the three most important activities in their decision to visit the Park. Indoor activities would also be important in respondents' decisions to visit Crater Lake between the months of October and May. Figure 3 shows the mean of responses, with 5 being very important and 1 being unimportant. Again, activities are ranked by order of importance. Surprisingly, over 60 percent of respondents indicated that rest and relaxation is a very important factor in their decision to visit the Park. Rest and relaxation is followed by fine dining, a spa/exercise room, storm watching, and interpretive displays. Figure 2 IMPORTANCE OF RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES IN DECISION TO VISIT CRATER LAKE Groomed XC Trails Backcountry XC Hut-to-Hut XC Guided/Interp Walks XC Ski Lessons Winter Camping Snow Cat Tours Downhill Skiing Snowmobile Tours Snowmobiling XC Ski Races Snow Shoeing Dog Team Mushing Snowboarding 12 3 4 Mean, 5«Very Important, 1«Unimportant Source: Crater Lake Market Survey, 1990 Figure 3 IMPORTANCE OF INDOOR ACTIVITIES IN DECISION TO VISIT CRATER LAKE Rest & Relaxation -H Fine Dining -H Spa/Exercise Room -H Storm Watching -H Interpretive Display -■ Videos/Movies -■ Educational Conf. -H Game Room -fl Business Meetings ~H 1 1 — 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 I Mean, 5«Vefy Important, 1*Unimportant Sources Crater Lake Market Survey, 1990 Lodging amenities are important in respondents' decisions to visit Crater Lake between the months of October and May. Figure 4 shows the mean of responses with 5 being very important and 1 being unimportant. Activities are ranked by order of importance. Respondents indicate a number of amenities are important in their decision to visit the Park. The data show fireplaces are the most important lodging amenity, followed by a room with a lake view, kitchenettes, hot tub facilities, and observation decks. Meeting facilities and business services were rated as unimportant in respondents' decisions to visit the Park. Assuming that the facilities and services offered at Crater Lake National Park are not expanded, two scenarios are likely with regards to future visitation. First, increases in future winter visitation at the Park will likely be dependent on growth in the regional and state economies. Population and income increases in Oregon, Washington, Northern California, and Idaho would likely have a positive impacts on the number of winter visits to the Park. This being the case, it is likely that Expected Visits Assuming No Expansion future winter visits to the Park will be similar to historic winter visitation trends at the Park. Over the past five years, winter visitation to Crater Lake has increased at an annual rate of about 4 percent. Assuming that facilities and services were not expanded at the Park, we expect that winter visitation will 1 increase at an annual rate of between two and four percent over the next five years. Alternatively, future winter visitation to the Park may level or decline due to increasing competition from more developed winter recreation facilities in Oregon. As winter recreation areas like Mt. Hood and Mt. Bachelor expand their facilities and services, the number of winter visits to Crater Lake may decline. In addition, winter visitation over the next five years could show a great deal of fluctuation. One factor that will greatly affect winter visitation at the Park is the weather. Since access to the Park depends on the severity of the weather during the winter months, future visitation Figure 4 IMPORTANCE OF LODGING AMENITIES IN DECISION TO VISIT CRATER LAKE Fireplace Room With Lake View Kitchenette Hot Tub/Sauna Observation Decks Telephone Rental Equipment Balcony Swimming Television Library Hostel Facilities Meeting Facilities Business Services 12 3 4 Mean, 5-Very Important, >Unlmportant Source: Crater Laka Market Survey, 1990 could vary a great deal. Over the past 10 years, the Park has experienced a few years of reduced winter visitation due to severe weather. In short, a decision not to expand the facilities and services offered at Crater Lake is a decision to attract numbers of winter visits that will be similar to historic levels, and that can be expected to grow at an annual rate of between two and four percent over the next five years. Future winter visitation to Crater Lake will likely show a substantial increase only if additional facilities and services are provided at the Park. Preliminary estimates of future winter visitation at the Park assume that specific types of activities and services have been developed. The figures shown in the table below represent Expected Visits With Additional Facilities/Services conservative market attraction rates expected to be realized in the first five years of expanded winter operations and marketing of Crater Lake winter season attractions. The total number (210,000) of projected Crater Lake winter visits does not account for duplication of listed activities during a visit to the park. To account for the potential of double or triple counting (i.e. a visitor who crosscountry skis, takes pictures of the Lake and stays in an RV camper) it has been assumed that 25 percent of the visitors will engage in more than one of the listed activities. The adjusted total winter outdoor recreation visitor count for the first few years of expanded winter operation with winter lodging facilities at the Rim Village will be .75 x 210,000 = 157,500 winter visits associated with outdoor recreation activities in the park. Based on the number of persons attracted to Timberline Lodge on Mt. Hood who do not participate in any recreation activity it is estimated that approximately 25 percent of the expected visitors occasions, in the final years of expanded winter operation, will be recorded by people who visit the site for rest and relaxation, but no outdoor recreation. This figure assumes that the new lodge has excellent dining and guest rooms which are attractive, comfortable, offer a view of the lake and/or Rim area and are reasonably priced. CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK WINTER RECREATION VISITATION POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED OUTDOOR RECREATION ACTTVITIES 1 Outdoor Activity Attraction Potential Oregon Visitor Days Out-of-State Visitor Days Total Winter Visitor Days Expansion Effort J 1. Cross-Country Skiing HIGH 28,000 (1) 9,000 (3) 37,000 Moderate 2, Snowplay HIGH 11,000 (2) 4,000 (5) 15,000 Moderate 3. Sightseeing/Exploring HIGH 47,000 (4) 56,000 (5) 103,000 Minimal 4. Outdoor Photography Moderate 22,000 (4) 19,000 (6) 41,000 Minimal 5* RV Camping Moderate 5,000 (5) 2,000 (7) 7,000 High 6. Wilderness Camping Low 1,000 (6) 800 (7) 2,000 Minimal 7c Camping (vacation) Low 1,000 (7) 4,000 (7) 5,000 Minimal J TOTALS 115,000 94,800 210,000 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop. Note: See Chapter 6 of the main document for more detail on winter recreation visitation potential at Crater Lake National Park. Preliminary assessment of the Crater Lake market area shows that there is adequate existing demand to support expansion of winter season operations in the park. As many as 210,000 winter season visitors may be attracted as a result of the expanded services and attractions being considered by the Park Service. If this projected level of visitations is achieved, this will represent a 191 percent increase over present winter visitations, or an increase of 400 persons a day during the winter months. The National Travel Data Center (NTDC) reports that the annual Impact of 100 additional visitors a day on the average U.S. community is: (1) service industry sales to visitors; (2) $327,000 in wages and salaries; (3) 29 new travel industry jobs, providing additional income for 23 households with 60 residents; (4) $134,000 in state and local tax revenue, enough to support 33 school children; and (5) two more retail and service establishments. The exact economic impacts of the proposed winter operations expansion are not known. The projected increase in visits is four times greater than the base used in the NTDC economic impact projections. SUMMARY OF CRATER LAKE DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Five alternative Development Options have been identified and described as possible futures for Crater Lake: Existing Conditions 1991 is not really an option as it only describes the present situation in the park and does not include projects (i.e renovation of the Historic Lodge) now in progress. Development Option 0 is an option which does not include any new construction but focuses on the winter operation of facilities such as the Mazama Cabins, The camper store/gas station and renovation of the Rim Village concessionaire building with significant improvements in the cafeteria, restaurant/lounge and gift shop/bookstore. Development Option #1 introduces 25 new projects or activities designed to promote winter use of the Park as well as increase user satisfaction of summer visitors. The significant winter addition introduced in this option is the Historic Lodge. Winter operation of the Historic Lodge would provide 71 rooms and the added potential of lodging as many as 213 people at one time or over 51,000 overnight visitors during a 240-day winter seasonc Fine dining and rooms with lake view would also be significant new attractions for winter visitors. Also included under this development option would be the construction of a new activity center to replace the existing concessionaire building in the Rim Village area. A covered parking structure is scheduled for development near the Rim Village. Groomed cross-country ski trails and hut-to-hut cross country skiing would also be introduced. Development Option #2 introduces 60 additional lodging units (180 people) as part of the Rim Village Activity Center and refinements and expansions of facilities in the new Activity Center/Hotel. Development Option #3 provides increased lodging capacity for an additional 150 people at one time. This new lodging would be in the form of RV overnight parking spaces and hostel facilities (50 beds) in the Mazama Village areaQ Prior to 1991, visitation to Crater Lake was declining at a 10-year annual average rate of 0.6%. The 10-year average annual decrease in winter visits is 0.6%. There are three reasons why Crater Lake is showing decreases in annual and winter visits: (1) there are no winter overnight accommodations and inadequate summer accommodations, (2) there are not sufficient activities or amenities for a visitor to be interested in staying longer than one night, and (3) the level and quality of service is below that of comparable attractions. To correct for these problems during the five months of winter, four winter-season Development Options have been presented. The Development Options can be treated as separate and mutually exclusive options or as phased development activities to be implemented when the winter demand for use of Park facilities exceeds the design capacities of each phase. On the basis of the survey research and evaluation of comparable facilities the research team recommends that the National Park Service begin immediate implementation of Development Option #L This development Option provides the minimum level of winter amenities necessary to reverse the trend in declining winter attendance. We recommend further that as levels of winter use reach design capacities, Development Option #2 be initiated. SUMMARY OF LODGING DESIGN CAPACITIES FOR FOUR CRATER LAKE WINTER DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Development Option 1: ; 1 # Rooms 2 PACT /".::3:::v:: Visits/Overnight 4 % of Overnight Design Capacity 1. Existing Conditions 0 0 90,000/0 2. Option 0 40 120 125,000/12,500 12,500/28,800/18,000 = 43% -69% 3. Optional 111 333 157,000/39,250 39,250/79,920/49,950 = 49% - 79% 4. Option #2 171 513 200,000/60,000 60,000/123,120/76,950 = 49% -78% 5. Option #3 212 663 210,000/73,500 73,500/159,120/99,450 = 46% - 74% Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop 1991 In the table above, column 2 shows the number of overnight rooms available for winter use. Column 3 shows the projected overnight design capacity (assuming a maximum of three persons per room). Column 4 shows the projected number of total winter visits for each Option compared with the estimated number of winter overnight visits. Column 5 shows two occupancy rates compared with the winter overnight lodging design capacity for each Option. The first occupancy rate was derived by the formula (Persons at one time (PAOT) x 240 days of winter operation/estimated winter visits). This occupancy rate is based on a seven-day-a-week, 240-day operating season beginning in October and continuing through May. The second, and higher occupancy rate shown in column 5 assumes a 150-day operating season with days of operation limited to holiday periods and Friday-through-Monday operations for non-holiday periods from October through May (PAOT x 150 days of winter operation/estimated winter overnight visits for each option). In developing the overnight lodging design capacity shown in the above table it was assumed that all available rooms would have a practical design capacity of three persons and that all rooms would be filled over the 240- or 150-day winter operating season. Neither of these conditions is likely to occur. However, this does provide a basis for determining the absolute lodging capacity for the park for each Development Option. Demand for winter lodging at Crater Lake will be highest during holiday periods and on weekends. As the number of winter recreation activities and lodging amenities at Crater Lake increase so will the demand to visit and stay one or more nights. Development Option #1 offers the prospect of the highest occupancy rates with either the 240- or 150-day operating season. Implementation of Development Option #1 would satisfy all but two of the recreation attractions rated most desirable by the 2,000 respondents in the survey of preferred Crater Lake winter activities, attractions and amenities. The two activities not covered in this option are (1) guided interpretative walks and (2) cross-country ski lesson. Both of the activities could be added with out major expense or change to park policy. All of the indoor recreation preferences but spa/exercise areas are satisfied by Development Option #1. Architects for the project indicate that there are spaces in the Historic Lodge which could be converted to accommodate indoor exercise equipment without interrupting other activities and services0 Most lodging amenities that potential Crater Lake visitors rated highest are satisfied by Development Option #1. Hot tubs/saunas are the only feature not included under this development program. These are amenities that could be added at a later date. SUMMARY OF MOST PREFERRED ACTIVITIES WITH EXISTING CONDITIONS & PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK PREFERRED ACTIVITY EXISTING 1991 OPTION 0 OPTION ; OPTION ;';.;,:.'; #2: h OPTION 1 Recreation Attractions 1 L Groomed X-C Trails 71% NO NO YES YES YES | 2. Back country X-C 64% YES YES YES YES YES 1 3. Hut-to-HutX-C 57% NO NO YES YES YES 1 4. Guided/lntrp Walks 45% NO NO NO YES YES 1 5. X-C Ski lessons 38% NO NO NO YES YES || Indoor Recreation | L Rest & relaxation 87% NO YES YES YES YES 1 2. Fine Dining 71% NO NO YES YES YES 3. Spa/Exercise areas 62% NO NO NO NO NO 1 4. Storm Watching 60% NO NO YES1 YES YES | 5. Intern displays/videos 50% YES YES YES YES YES 1 Lodging Amenities 1 1. Fireplaces 84% NO NO YES YES YES 1 2. Room w/lake view 81 % NO NO YES YES YES | 3. Kitchenette 80% NO NO YES YES YES | 4. Hot Tub/Sauna 76% NO NO NO NO NO | 5. Observation Decks 75% NO NO YES YES YES 6. Telephones 64% NO NO YES YES YES 1 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop 1991 1 Winter storm watching will be available only if the Historic Lodge is opened for winter use. PRELIMINARY REVENUE FORECASTS FOR WINTER OPERATIONS AT THE PARK Preliminary revenue forecasts have been developed to assess potential concessionaire revenues under the four development options that propose changes in facilities and activities offered at the Park* We also present a summary of historic data and revenue estimates for the Existing Conditions (1991) Option, The forecasts presented are intended as a measure of the magnitude of concession revenues from winter operations (October through May) at Crater Lake. Any forecast is, by definition uncertain. Future conditions may vary considerably from assumptions made in the analysis. Because of this uncertainty, we present a range of revenue forecasts (low, medium, and high) in this chapter. SUMMARY OF GROSS CONCESSIONAIRE REVENUE AT CRATER LAKE FOR WINTER OPERATIONS (OCTOBER THROUGH MAY) I Development Option Gross Revenue Estimate (Millions of $) High Medium Low 1 Existing Conditions (1991) $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 1 Development Option 0 $1.8 $1.4 $1.0 Development Option #1 $3.5 $2.8 $2.1 Development Option #2 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 Development Option #3 $5.8 $4.7 $3.6 1 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop, 1991. Our preliminary revenue forecasts are based on the development options described above. These include the Existing Conditions 1991 (No Change option), and Development Options 0-3. We estimate that winter destination visitors will generate between $61.92 and $40.25 per person per day (visit) after overnight accommodations and amenities are introduced in the Park. Our medium range estimate for destination revenue per visit is $51.09. Destination visitors include any person that spends one or more nights in the Park at a concession-operated overnight facility (does not include campgrounds). MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARK Our evaluation of Crater Lake National Park, our experience with winter recreation supply and demand for the Northwest states, and the results of the survey conducted for this study helped in identifying marketing strategies designed to attract increased numbers of winter visits and increased enjoyment of Crater Lake National Park during the winter months. Crater Lake is different from the many other locations in the Oregon Cascades. Winter comes early and lasts a long time. This in itself can be an important attraction to potential visitors. To better inform potential visitors of the range of weather conditions they might encounter in the park we believe the park operating seasons should be divided into smaller seasons offering special activities, interpretative presentations and events. We recommend that the Crater Lake seasons include: 1) Summer from June to September; 2) Indian Summer from September through October; 3) Early Winter, November through December; 4) Winter Storms, January through February; 5) Spring Ski Tours, March through April and 6) Snow Country Picnics, May. Creating six unique operating seasons for Crater Lake allows development of marketing programs which emphasize certain aspects of the park and the new program of year-round operations with full service lodging and meals. To help promote the new seasons and park activities we recommend the following promotional, implementation, and monitoring strategies: To help promote the new seasons and park activities we recommend the following promotional activities: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK Promotional Activities (see Chapter 9 for detail) ► Crater Lake Calendar Contest ► Crater Lake Cookbook ► Christmas at Crater Lake ► Crater Lake Happenings ► Evenings at Crater Lake ► Winter Guide to Crater Lake Implementing Strategies (see Chapter 9 for detail) ► Implement the promotional activities suggested above. ► Increase advertising aimed at specific target markets. * Marketing efforts could be aimed toward the opening of the new lodge, trying to attract new and old visitors to see the newly-restored facility when it is completed in 1994. ► The Oregon Tourism Division could be encouraged to include Crater Lake National Park in its television advertising campaign. ► A writer could be retained to write and publish articles in business and sports-related magazines. ► Later in the decade, when construction at the Park is completed, and improved facilities are available, a direct mail campaign could be conducted. Monitoring Techniques (see Chapter 9 for detail) ► A toll-free telephone number that could serve as a central information and reservation center should be introduced. ► Short survey forms could be developed and distributed both inside the Park and in nearby locations, asking visitors to rate Park amenities and services. ► A longer survey could also be developed for periodic distribution by mail. The survey could be sent to recent visitors to the Park. This survey could provide data similar to the short survey form, but in more detail.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Located in southern Oregon, Crater Lake National Park has long been one of the most popular visitor attractions in the state. Due to a combination of heavy snow fall and limited services, most people visit Crater Lake between May and September. This appears to be changing with the growing popularity of cross country skiing. The National Park Service is responding to this increasing demand for winter use. Over the past five years, the National Park Service has developed planning documents proposing extensive improvements in the Rim Village area which would provide year-round visitor services. Figure 1 CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK Selected cities within 3 and 5 hours driving time The University of Oregon Community Planning Workshop (CPW) was contracted by the National Park Service to evaluate the market for winter operations at the Park. Specifically, CPW's charge was to (1) describe the general demand for winter recreation in the Pacific Northwest and southern Oregon, and (2) determine current and anticipated demand for winter services and activities at Crater Lake. To evaluate the market potential for winter operations at the Park, CPW evaluated: (1) current facilities and activities offered at the Park; (2) historic visitation at the Park and at comparable winter recreation areas; and (3) historic revenues and expenses associated with winter operations at the Park. CPW also sent a survey to about 8,500 individuals to identify (1) their current winter recreation patterns, (2) previous visitation patterns to Crater Lake, (3) preferred activities and services at the Park during the winter months, and (2) the likelihood of future visits to Crater Lake during the winter months. EXISTING CONDITIONS AT THE PARK The National Park Service currently operates two buildings for the use of the general public within Crater Lake National Park: (1) the small Rim Visitor Center, which is open only during the summer and (2) the Steel Center, which contains a larger, more complete visitors' center. The Steel Center is located in the Munson Valley and is open year-round. At present, the park Service has 48 permanent and about 75 seasonal employees. Other visitor service facilities within park boundaries are operated by Crater Lake Lodge Inc. of Oregon under a concession contract with the National Park Service. Current facilities operated by the concessioner include a day-use building that serves as a cafeteria, restaurant, snack bar, ski rental, boat tours, gift store and grocery located on the rim of Crater Lake; and 40 guest lodging units, camper store and 198 campsites located at Mazama. Crater Lake Lodge is presently closed and under rehabilitation. When completed in August 1994, the lodge will contain 71 guest rooms. A camper service building at Mazama offers a gasoline service station, public showers and laundry, grocery and camper supplies, and limited food service. At present, Crater Lake Lodge Inc. employs 11 people in the winter and 110 in the summer. Since 1902, when annual visitation counts to the park were first recorded, annual visits to the park have risen steadily, first exceeding 500,000 in 1962. Visitation peaked in 1977, when about 617,000 people visited the park. Since the peak years of the late 1970s, annual visitation has declined. Between the years 1968 and 1978, an average of 555,000 visitors came to Crater Lake. From 1979 to 1990, the average was 469,000. This total rebounded to 517,000 in 199L It is notable, however, that between 1985 and 1990, summer visitation increased by an average of 0.5 percent annually while winter use increased by 3.6 percent each year. HISTORIC CRATER LAKE VISITATION COUNTS 1980-1991 Year 1 Total Visitors j Summer Visitors' Winter Visitors? 1980 484,256 367,899 116,357 1981 536,719 405,707 131,012 1982 484,283 372,767 111,516 1983 429,586 332,307 92,279 1984 499,945 339,570 160,375 1985 427,927 336,655 91,272 1986 427,716 329,483 98,233 1987 492,581 362,693 129,888 1988 468,994 347,730 121,264 1989 454,737 347,384 107,353 1990 454,253 345,097 109,156 5 Year AAGR 1.2% .5% 3.6% 10 Year AAGR -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% 1 Source: National Park Service. Note: 1991 total visits to Crater Lake National Park were 516,948, an increase of about 62,000 over 1990. POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WINTER OPERATIONS AT THE PARK Planning for increased use of Crater Lake National Park during the winter season requires emphasizing the unique features of the Park, The winter resources of Crater Lake most likely to attract additional winter visits are snow-related activities such as cross-country skiing, snow play and enjoying the physical beauty of the Lake and surrounding park in the winter. The remote, peaceful and relaxed atmosphere of a snow country resort are also key attractions to a number of Activities That Would Attract Winter Visitors potential visitors. Residents of the Pacific states are active outdoor recreation participants. The activities that are most likely to attract them to places like Crater Lake during the months of November through May include: cross-country skiing, snow play, outdoor photography, recreational vehicle camping, sightseeing/exploring, camping (vacation/overnight), and backpacking/wilderness camping. PACIFIC STATES WINTER RECREATION VISITATION POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED OUTDOOR RECREATION ACTIVITIES J Outdoor Activity Winter Potential Washington j Occasions j Oregon Occasions California Occasions Total Occasions jj 1. Cross-Country Ski High 922,000 557,000 932,000 2,411,000 2. Snowplay Moderate 1,936,000 1,058,000 1,626,000 4,620,000 3. Sightsee/explore Moderate 23,042,000 18,645,000 32,529,000 74,216,000 4. Photography Moderate 13,825,000 9,100,000 24,397,000 47,322,000 5. RV Camping Moderate 6,913,000 4,954,000 12,198,000 24,065,000 6. Wilderness Camp Low 5,023,000 2,282,000 3,172,000 10,477,000 7. Camp/vacation Low 18,065,000 12,273,000 18,704,000 49,042,000 TOTAL 69,726,000 48,869,000 93,558,000 212,153,000 1 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop.. Note: State participation rates from Oregon Outdoor Recreation Plan 1988 (Cross Country =.20 per capita; Snowplay= .38 per capita; Sightsee/explore = 6.7 per capita; Outdoor Photography = 3.26 per capita; RV Camping = 1.78 per capita). Similar, although usually lower, participation rates were applied to the populations of Washington and California. Outdoor recreation activities would be important in survey respondents' decisions to visit the Park between the months of October and May. Figure 2 shows the mean of responses with 5 being very important and 1 being unimportant. Activities are ranked by order of importance. Respondents indicated that groomed cross-country trails, backcountry skiing, and hut-to-hut skiing are the three most important activities in their decision to visit the Park. Indoor activities would also be important in respondents' decisions to visit Crater Lake between the months of October and May. Figure 3 shows the mean of responses, with 5 being very important and 1 being unimportant. Again, activities are ranked by order of importance. Surprisingly, over 60 percent of respondents indicated that rest and relaxation is a very important factor in their decision to visit the Park. Rest and relaxation is followed by fine dining, a spa/exercise room, storm watching, and interpretive displays. Figure 2 IMPORTANCE OF RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES IN DECISION TO VISIT CRATER LAKE Groomed XC Trails Backcountry XC Hut-to-Hut XC Guided/Interp Walks XC Ski Lessons Winter Camping Snow Cat Tours Downhill Skiing Snowmobile Tours Snowmobiling XC Ski Races Snow Shoeing Dog Team Mushing Snowboarding 12 3 4 Mean, 5«Very Important, 1«Unimportant Source: Crater Lake Market Survey, 1990 Figure 3 IMPORTANCE OF INDOOR ACTIVITIES IN DECISION TO VISIT CRATER LAKE Rest & Relaxation -H Fine Dining -H Spa/Exercise Room -H Storm Watching -H Interpretive Display -■ Videos/Movies -■ Educational Conf. -H Game Room -fl Business Meetings ~H 1 1 — 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 I Mean, 5«Vefy Important, 1*Unimportant Sources Crater Lake Market Survey, 1990 Lodging amenities are important in respondents' decisions to visit Crater Lake between the months of October and May. Figure 4 shows the mean of responses with 5 being very important and 1 being unimportant. Activities are ranked by order of importance. Respondents indicate a number of amenities are important in their decision to visit the Park. The data show fireplaces are the most important lodging amenity, followed by a room with a lake view, kitchenettes, hot tub facilities, and observation decks. Meeting facilities and business services were rated as unimportant in respondents' decisions to visit the Park. Assuming that the facilities and services offered at Crater Lake National Park are not expanded, two scenarios are likely with regards to future visitation. First, increases in future winter visitation at the Park will likely be dependent on growth in the regional and state economies. Population and income increases in Oregon, Washington, Northern California, and Idaho would likely have a positive impacts on the number of winter visits to the Park. This being the case, it is likely that Expected Visits Assuming No Expansion future winter visits to the Park will be similar to historic winter visitation trends at the Park. Over the past five years, winter visitation to Crater Lake has increased at an annual rate of about 4 percent. Assuming that facilities and services were not expanded at the Park, we expect that winter visitation will 1 increase at an annual rate of between two and four percent over the next five years. Alternatively, future winter visitation to the Park may level or decline due to increasing competition from more developed winter recreation facilities in Oregon. As winter recreation areas like Mt. Hood and Mt. Bachelor expand their facilities and services, the number of winter visits to Crater Lake may decline. In addition, winter visitation over the next five years could show a great deal of fluctuation. One factor that will greatly affect winter visitation at the Park is the weather. Since access to the Park depends on the severity of the weather during the winter months, future visitation Figure 4 IMPORTANCE OF LODGING AMENITIES IN DECISION TO VISIT CRATER LAKE Fireplace Room With Lake View Kitchenette Hot Tub/Sauna Observation Decks Telephone Rental Equipment Balcony Swimming Television Library Hostel Facilities Meeting Facilities Business Services 12 3 4 Mean, 5-Very Important, >Unlmportant Source: Crater Laka Market Survey, 1990 could vary a great deal. Over the past 10 years, the Park has experienced a few years of reduced winter visitation due to severe weather. In short, a decision not to expand the facilities and services offered at Crater Lake is a decision to attract numbers of winter visits that will be similar to historic levels, and that can be expected to grow at an annual rate of between two and four percent over the next five years. Future winter visitation to Crater Lake will likely show a substantial increase only if additional facilities and services are provided at the Park. Preliminary estimates of future winter visitation at the Park assume that specific types of activities and services have been developed. The figures shown in the table below represent Expected Visits With Additional Facilities/Services conservative market attraction rates expected to be realized in the first five years of expanded winter operations and marketing of Crater Lake winter season attractions. The total number (210,000) of projected Crater Lake winter visits does not account for duplication of listed activities during a visit to the park. To account for the potential of double or triple counting (i.e. a visitor who crosscountry skis, takes pictures of the Lake and stays in an RV camper) it has been assumed that 25 percent of the visitors will engage in more than one of the listed activities. The adjusted total winter outdoor recreation visitor count for the first few years of expanded winter operation with winter lodging facilities at the Rim Village will be .75 x 210,000 = 157,500 winter visits associated with outdoor recreation activities in the park. Based on the number of persons attracted to Timberline Lodge on Mt. Hood who do not participate in any recreation activity it is estimated that approximately 25 percent of the expected visitors occasions, in the final years of expanded winter operation, will be recorded by people who visit the site for rest and relaxation, but no outdoor recreation. This figure assumes that the new lodge has excellent dining and guest rooms which are attractive, comfortable, offer a view of the lake and/or Rim area and are reasonably priced. CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK WINTER RECREATION VISITATION POTENTIAL FOR SELECTED OUTDOOR RECREATION ACTTVITIES 1 Outdoor Activity Attraction Potential Oregon Visitor Days Out-of-State Visitor Days Total Winter Visitor Days Expansion Effort J 1. Cross-Country Skiing HIGH 28,000 (1) 9,000 (3) 37,000 Moderate 2, Snowplay HIGH 11,000 (2) 4,000 (5) 15,000 Moderate 3. Sightseeing/Exploring HIGH 47,000 (4) 56,000 (5) 103,000 Minimal 4. Outdoor Photography Moderate 22,000 (4) 19,000 (6) 41,000 Minimal 5* RV Camping Moderate 5,000 (5) 2,000 (7) 7,000 High 6. Wilderness Camping Low 1,000 (6) 800 (7) 2,000 Minimal 7c Camping (vacation) Low 1,000 (7) 4,000 (7) 5,000 Minimal J TOTALS 115,000 94,800 210,000 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop. Note: See Chapter 6 of the main document for more detail on winter recreation visitation potential at Crater Lake National Park. Preliminary assessment of the Crater Lake market area shows that there is adequate existing demand to support expansion of winter season operations in the park. As many as 210,000 winter season visitors may be attracted as a result of the expanded services and attractions being considered by the Park Service. If this projected level of visitations is achieved, this will represent a 191 percent increase over present winter visitations, or an increase of 400 persons a day during the winter months. The National Travel Data Center (NTDC) reports that the annual Impact of 100 additional visitors a day on the average U.S. community is: (1) service industry sales to visitors; (2) $327,000 in wages and salaries; (3) 29 new travel industry jobs, providing additional income for 23 households with 60 residents; (4) $134,000 in state and local tax revenue, enough to support 33 school children; and (5) two more retail and service establishments. The exact economic impacts of the proposed winter operations expansion are not known. The projected increase in visits is four times greater than the base used in the NTDC economic impact projections. SUMMARY OF CRATER LAKE DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Five alternative Development Options have been identified and described as possible futures for Crater Lake: Existing Conditions 1991 is not really an option as it only describes the present situation in the park and does not include projects (i.e renovation of the Historic Lodge) now in progress. Development Option 0 is an option which does not include any new construction but focuses on the winter operation of facilities such as the Mazama Cabins, The camper store/gas station and renovation of the Rim Village concessionaire building with significant improvements in the cafeteria, restaurant/lounge and gift shop/bookstore. Development Option #1 introduces 25 new projects or activities designed to promote winter use of the Park as well as increase user satisfaction of summer visitors. The significant winter addition introduced in this option is the Historic Lodge. Winter operation of the Historic Lodge would provide 71 rooms and the added potential of lodging as many as 213 people at one time or over 51,000 overnight visitors during a 240-day winter seasonc Fine dining and rooms with lake view would also be significant new attractions for winter visitors. Also included under this development option would be the construction of a new activity center to replace the existing concessionaire building in the Rim Village area. A covered parking structure is scheduled for development near the Rim Village. Groomed cross-country ski trails and hut-to-hut cross country skiing would also be introduced. Development Option #2 introduces 60 additional lodging units (180 people) as part of the Rim Village Activity Center and refinements and expansions of facilities in the new Activity Center/Hotel. Development Option #3 provides increased lodging capacity for an additional 150 people at one time. This new lodging would be in the form of RV overnight parking spaces and hostel facilities (50 beds) in the Mazama Village areaQ Prior to 1991, visitation to Crater Lake was declining at a 10-year annual average rate of 0.6%. The 10-year average annual decrease in winter visits is 0.6%. There are three reasons why Crater Lake is showing decreases in annual and winter visits: (1) there are no winter overnight accommodations and inadequate summer accommodations, (2) there are not sufficient activities or amenities for a visitor to be interested in staying longer than one night, and (3) the level and quality of service is below that of comparable attractions. To correct for these problems during the five months of winter, four winter-season Development Options have been presented. The Development Options can be treated as separate and mutually exclusive options or as phased development activities to be implemented when the winter demand for use of Park facilities exceeds the design capacities of each phase. On the basis of the survey research and evaluation of comparable facilities the research team recommends that the National Park Service begin immediate implementation of Development Option #L This development Option provides the minimum level of winter amenities necessary to reverse the trend in declining winter attendance. We recommend further that as levels of winter use reach design capacities, Development Option #2 be initiated. SUMMARY OF LODGING DESIGN CAPACITIES FOR FOUR CRATER LAKE WINTER DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Development Option 1: ; 1 # Rooms 2 PACT /".::3:::v:: Visits/Overnight 4 % of Overnight Design Capacity 1. Existing Conditions 0 0 90,000/0 2. Option 0 40 120 125,000/12,500 12,500/28,800/18,000 = 43% -69% 3. Optional 111 333 157,000/39,250 39,250/79,920/49,950 = 49% - 79% 4. Option #2 171 513 200,000/60,000 60,000/123,120/76,950 = 49% -78% 5. Option #3 212 663 210,000/73,500 73,500/159,120/99,450 = 46% - 74% Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop 1991 In the table above, column 2 shows the number of overnight rooms available for winter use. Column 3 shows the projected overnight design capacity (assuming a maximum of three persons per room). Column 4 shows the projected number of total winter visits for each Option compared with the estimated number of winter overnight visits. Column 5 shows two occupancy rates compared with the winter overnight lodging design capacity for each Option. The first occupancy rate was derived by the formula (Persons at one time (PAOT) x 240 days of winter operation/estimated winter visits). This occupancy rate is based on a seven-day-a-week, 240-day operating season beginning in October and continuing through May. The second, and higher occupancy rate shown in column 5 assumes a 150-day operating season with days of operation limited to holiday periods and Friday-through-Monday operations for non-holiday periods from October through May (PAOT x 150 days of winter operation/estimated winter overnight visits for each option). In developing the overnight lodging design capacity shown in the above table it was assumed that all available rooms would have a practical design capacity of three persons and that all rooms would be filled over the 240- or 150-day winter operating season. Neither of these conditions is likely to occur. However, this does provide a basis for determining the absolute lodging capacity for the park for each Development Option. Demand for winter lodging at Crater Lake will be highest during holiday periods and on weekends. As the number of winter recreation activities and lodging amenities at Crater Lake increase so will the demand to visit and stay one or more nights. Development Option #1 offers the prospect of the highest occupancy rates with either the 240- or 150-day operating season. Implementation of Development Option #1 would satisfy all but two of the recreation attractions rated most desirable by the 2,000 respondents in the survey of preferred Crater Lake winter activities, attractions and amenities. The two activities not covered in this option are (1) guided interpretative walks and (2) cross-country ski lesson. Both of the activities could be added with out major expense or change to park policy. All of the indoor recreation preferences but spa/exercise areas are satisfied by Development Option #1. Architects for the project indicate that there are spaces in the Historic Lodge which could be converted to accommodate indoor exercise equipment without interrupting other activities and services0 Most lodging amenities that potential Crater Lake visitors rated highest are satisfied by Development Option #1. Hot tubs/saunas are the only feature not included under this development program. These are amenities that could be added at a later date. SUMMARY OF MOST PREFERRED ACTIVITIES WITH EXISTING CONDITIONS & PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK PREFERRED ACTIVITY EXISTING 1991 OPTION 0 OPTION ; OPTION ;';.;,:.'; #2: h OPTION 1 Recreation Attractions 1 L Groomed X-C Trails 71% NO NO YES YES YES | 2. Back country X-C 64% YES YES YES YES YES 1 3. Hut-to-HutX-C 57% NO NO YES YES YES 1 4. Guided/lntrp Walks 45% NO NO NO YES YES 1 5. X-C Ski lessons 38% NO NO NO YES YES || Indoor Recreation | L Rest & relaxation 87% NO YES YES YES YES 1 2. Fine Dining 71% NO NO YES YES YES 3. Spa/Exercise areas 62% NO NO NO NO NO 1 4. Storm Watching 60% NO NO YES1 YES YES | 5. Intern displays/videos 50% YES YES YES YES YES 1 Lodging Amenities 1 1. Fireplaces 84% NO NO YES YES YES 1 2. Room w/lake view 81 % NO NO YES YES YES | 3. Kitchenette 80% NO NO YES YES YES | 4. Hot Tub/Sauna 76% NO NO NO NO NO | 5. Observation Decks 75% NO NO YES YES YES 6. Telephones 64% NO NO YES YES YES 1 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop 1991 1 Winter storm watching will be available only if the Historic Lodge is opened for winter use. PRELIMINARY REVENUE FORECASTS FOR WINTER OPERATIONS AT THE PARK Preliminary revenue forecasts have been developed to assess potential concessionaire revenues under the four development options that propose changes in facilities and activities offered at the Park* We also present a summary of historic data and revenue estimates for the Existing Conditions (1991) Option, The forecasts presented are intended as a measure of the magnitude of concession revenues from winter operations (October through May) at Crater Lake. Any forecast is, by definition uncertain. Future conditions may vary considerably from assumptions made in the analysis. Because of this uncertainty, we present a range of revenue forecasts (low, medium, and high) in this chapter. SUMMARY OF GROSS CONCESSIONAIRE REVENUE AT CRATER LAKE FOR WINTER OPERATIONS (OCTOBER THROUGH MAY) I Development Option Gross Revenue Estimate (Millions of $) High Medium Low 1 Existing Conditions (1991) $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 1 Development Option 0 $1.8 $1.4 $1.0 Development Option #1 $3.5 $2.8 $2.1 Development Option #2 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 Development Option #3 $5.8 $4.7 $3.6 1 Source: University of Oregon, Community Planning Workshop, 1991. Our preliminary revenue forecasts are based on the development options described above. These include the Existing Conditions 1991 (No Change option), and Development Options 0-3. We estimate that winter destination visitors will generate between $61.92 and $40.25 per person per day (visit) after overnight accommodations and amenities are introduced in the Park. Our medium range estimate for destination revenue per visit is $51.09. Destination visitors include any person that spends one or more nights in the Park at a concession-operated overnight facility (does not include campgrounds). MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARK Our evaluation of Crater Lake National Park, our experience with winter recreation supply and demand for the Northwest states, and the results of the survey conducted for this study helped in identifying marketing strategies designed to attract increased numbers of winter visits and increased enjoyment of Crater Lake National Park during the winter months. Crater Lake is different from the many other locations in the Oregon Cascades. Winter comes early and lasts a long time. This in itself can be an important attraction to potential visitors. To better inform potential visitors of the range of weather conditions they might encounter in the park we believe the park operating seasons should be divided into smaller seasons offering special activities, interpretative presentations and events. We recommend that the Crater Lake seasons include: 1) Summer from June to September; 2) Indian Summer from September through October; 3) Early Winter, November through December; 4) Winter Storms, January through February; 5) Spring Ski Tours, March through April and 6) Snow Country Picnics, May. Creating six unique operating seasons for Crater Lake allows development of marketing programs which emphasize certain aspects of the park and the new program of year-round operations with full service lodging and meals. To help promote the new seasons and park activities we recommend the following promotional, implementation, and monitoring strategies: To help promote the new seasons and park activities we recommend the following promotional activities: SUMMARY OF PROPOSED MARKETING STRATEGIES FOR CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK Promotional Activities (see Chapter 9 for detail) ► Crater Lake Calendar Contest ► Crater Lake Cookbook ► Christmas at Crater Lake ► Crater Lake Happenings ► Evenings at Crater Lake ► Winter Guide to Crater Lake Implementing Strategies (see Chapter 9 for detail) ► Implement the promotional activities suggested above. ► Increase advertising aimed at specific target markets. * Marketing efforts could be aimed toward the opening of the new lodge, trying to attract new and old visitors to see the newly-restored facility when it is completed in 1994. ► The Oregon Tourism Division could be encouraged to include Crater Lake National Park in its television advertising campaign. ► A writer could be retained to write and publish articles in business and sports-related magazines. ► Later in the decade, when construction at the Park is completed, and improved facilities are available, a direct mail campaign could be conducted. Monitoring Techniques (see Chapter 9 for detail) ► A toll-free telephone number that could serve as a central information and reservation center should be introduced. ► Short survey forms could be developed and distributed both inside the Park and in nearby locations, asking visitors to rate Park amenities and services. ► A longer survey could also be developed for periodic distribution by mail. The survey could be sent to recent visitors to the Park. This survey could provide data similar to the short survey form, but in more detail.