ill.; Report title; "Al Galipeau, Socio Economics Studies, NPS, WASO/Denver, 7/12/94."
RECREATION VISITS FORECAST FOR CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK Based on a market analysis using the 1987 Crater Lake NP visitor survey data, participation rates from National Demographics and Lifestyles Inc. (NDL) and Census population forecasts, the twenty year Crater Lake annual visitor demand forecast (circa 2010) is 595,000, about a 38% increase. Annual recreation visits volume at Crater Lake are presently (circa 1990) about 432,000. Analysis of zip code data from the 1987 survey done by the University of Washington, indicates that 69% are from the region (see map) , 25% are from the rest of the country and 6% are foreign. That would be about 298,000 regional visitor origins, 108,000 domestic non-regional and 26,000 foreign. The zip code analysis also indicated that the average driving time for visitors living in the region is 5.74 hours. For the non-regional domestic visitors, the average driving time is 3 3.45 hours. The total annual regional market for sightseeing is about 6,4 67,000 (derived from NDL's 1991 surveys). With a 5.74 hour average trip, the adjusted market is presently about 1,998,000. The 2 98 thousand annual regional visitors derived from the 1987 survey data would constitute a 15% realized market share. The corresponding domestic non-regional annual market, determined from the NDL data, is 68,492,000. Adjusted for a 3 3.45 hour average drive, this would be about 24,266,000 (i.e., presently over 24.2 million people from the domestic non-regional area make trips to places as far as Crater Lake). Crater Lake gets about 108,000 of these visits or a 0.44% market share. No attempt is made to determine the foreign market share. The foreign market is huge and promises to grow in the next 2 0 years but the Crater Lake share is small. For the foreign forecast, the proportion of foreign visits to the park is kept at six percent of the recreation visits. The regional market was segmented into 44 different neighborhood types. This provides us with qualitative descriptions of the potential visitors and, using Census Bureau forecasts, a better forecast of the market. Descriptions of the eight segments with the most potential are included here. Since the segmentation unit was the zip code area, Census forecasts of these areas indicates the size of the market in the future. By the year 2 010, the regional market is forecast as about two million. With a 15% market share, the regional annual demand market should be about 416,000 visits. For the domestic market beyond the region, a 3 3% increase by the year 2010 is being forecast. The entire population should grow about 22% but the travel market will grow more because by 2 010 the large baby boom cohort will be at ages 46 to 64, prime travel ages. This market would be about 32.2 million and with a 0.44% annual share, Crater Lake NP can expect about 143,000 from this market circa 2010. The total domestic (regional an non-regional) annual visits volume is forecast at about 559,000. If the foreign proportion is 6% there would be about 36,000 foreign visitors in 2 010. The total annual volume in about the year 2010 is forecast as about 595,000.
RECREATION VISITS FORECAST FOR CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK Based on a market analysis using the 1987 Crater Lake NP visitor survey data, participation rates from National Demographics and Lifestyles Inc. (NDL) and Census population forecasts, the twenty year Crater Lake annual visitor demand forecast (circa 2010) is 595,000, about a 38% increase. Annual recreation visits volume at Crater Lake are presently (circa 1990) about 432,000. Analysis of zip code data from the 1987 survey done by the University of Washington, indicates that 69% are from the region (see map) , 25% are from the rest of the country and 6% are foreign. That would be about 298,000 regional visitor origins, 108,000 domestic non-regional and 26,000 foreign. The zip code analysis also indicated that the average driving time for visitors living in the region is 5.74 hours. For the non-regional domestic visitors, the average driving time is 3 3.45 hours. The total annual regional market for sightseeing is about 6,4 67,000 (derived from NDL's 1991 surveys). With a 5.74 hour average trip, the adjusted market is presently about 1,998,000. The 2 98 thousand annual regional visitors derived from the 1987 survey data would constitute a 15% realized market share. The corresponding domestic non-regional annual market, determined from the NDL data, is 68,492,000. Adjusted for a 3 3.45 hour average drive, this would be about 24,266,000 (i.e., presently over 24.2 million people from the domestic non-regional area make trips to places as far as Crater Lake). Crater Lake gets about 108,000 of these visits or a 0.44% market share. No attempt is made to determine the foreign market share. The foreign market is huge and promises to grow in the next 2 0 years but the Crater Lake share is small. For the foreign forecast, the proportion of foreign visits to the park is kept at six percent of the recreation visits. The regional market was segmented into 44 different neighborhood types. This provides us with qualitative descriptions of the potential visitors and, using Census Bureau forecasts, a better forecast of the market. Descriptions of the eight segments with the most potential are included here. Since the segmentation unit was the zip code area, Census forecasts of these areas indicates the size of the market in the future. By the year 2 010, the regional market is forecast as about two million. With a 15% market share, the regional annual demand market should be about 416,000 visits. For the domestic market beyond the region, a 3 3% increase by the year 2010 is being forecast. The entire population should grow about 22% but the travel market will grow more because by 2 010 the large baby boom cohort will be at ages 46 to 64, prime travel ages. This market would be about 32.2 million and with a 0.44% annual share, Crater Lake NP can expect about 143,000 from this market circa 2010. The total domestic (regional an non-regional) annual visits volume is forecast at about 559,000. If the foreign proportion is 6% there would be about 36,000 foreign visitors in 2 010. The total annual volume in about the year 2010 is forecast as about 595,000.